The Statistics (and Physics) of Wide Receivers in the NFL (Pt. 2)

What did I find when evaluating Dr. Smith’s data on NFL receivers?

First a little about the data itself. It consists of performance data of  495 wide receivers in the NFL from 1999 - 2012.  It has information on the following performance characteristics from each player’s post college evaluation and NFL career:

Sammy Watkins runs the 40 yard dash in 4.34 seconds in the 2014 scouting combine (USAToday)
Watkins will play with the Buffalo Bills against the Miami Dolphins

Pre-career data from Scouting Combine or Pro Day
* Year drafted
* Player’s name
* College
* Height in inches
* Weight in lbs
* Wonderlic scores (very limited sample)
* 40yardsec (40 yd dash times from Pro Day)
* Benchpress (limited sample)
*Vertical leap in inches
*Broad jump in inches
*Shuttle time
* Cone time
            
Table 1
Characteristics of NFL Wide Receivers Evaluated at Combine/Pro-Day: 1999 - 2012

NFL Performance Indices
* Games (g)
* Games started (gs)
* Receptions (rec)
* Yards (yd)
* Yards per reception (yr)
* Touchdowns (td)
* Long reception (lng)
* Receptions per game (rg)

Table 2
Performance of NFL Wide Receivers: 1999 - 2012
    Variable |                  Obs        Mean              Std. Dev.                      Min        Max
-----------------+---------------------------------------------------------------------------

After reviewing Dr. Smith’s data, I then created some performance indices of my own.  In particular, I was interested in some  statistics that indicated scoring potential:

* TD per game (tdg) Obvious importance
* Yards per game (Ydg) set up runs for TD s and field goals)
* RECg (receptions per game)

The first two statistics are of extreme importance. The third gives an indication of productivity and potentially of ability to help one's team dominate the clock.

I also wanted to translate weight and 40 yard dash times into metric units  for reasons that will shortly become obvious.

* Speed (meters per sec or ms, as calculated from 40 yard dash time)
* Mass (weight in kilograms)

Table 3
Additional Performance Indexes of NFL Wide Receivers: 1999 - 2012

Additionally Dr. Smith designated 18 receivers in his database as “elite.”  He classified these by having at least four receptions in each game and one touchdown scored in every three games for a total of 32 games. Here is a summary of Smith’s elite receivers:
   

Table 4
 Elite NFL Wide Receivers: 1999 - 2012: Characteristics & Performance

There is plenty of well-considered evidence that the 40 dash time matters a lot to successful receivers. This is a nice example:

What-a-strong-40-yard-dash-means-for-elite-wide-receivers

What new can we add from further evaluation of Dr. Smith’s data?

Let's start with a non-sequitur.

I did a t-test of means of the elite receivers vs. the other receivers who play more than a single game. Get this:  it revealed essentially no difference at all in their average time at the 40 yard dash!

Okay, I was happy to forget college statistics, what does all that mean? 

That there is about a 64% chance that there is effectively no difference in the speed of elite receivers and non-elite receivers.  Not statistically significant.

Elite receivers are not necessarily faster. What's with that?

So, if it is not speed that separates elite receivers from those less successful, then what is it?

In the next column, I’ll show that speed is important, but not by itself. There is a large interaction that may surprise you. And together with speed, it does make a difference.
(No, it is not the quarterback or college...)

Next time...

The Statistics (and Physics) of Wide Receivers in the NFL

There is a new analytics department with GM Dennis Hickey and the Miami Dolphins. No longer a matter of speculation, the rumored “crystal ball” group’s existence is verified. Hickey himself admits as much:

http://www.miamiherald.com/2014/04/16/4060760/technology-embraced-by-miami-dolphins.html

While we’re unlikely to learn most anything about the Dolphins equivalent to Black Ops, we can imagine there are some pretty sophisticated number crunching gurus shredding numbers behind the curtain.

Recently, intrepid Miami Herald sports columnist, Armando Salguero, posted intriguing data from  Dr. Peter Lawrence Smith on wide receiver prospects for the Miami Dolphins. Dr. Smith is a Postdoctoral Research Fellow for Clinical Sciences at St. Georges University of London. And like me– obviously possesses more than a passing interest in football– and numbers!

Dr. Smith’s data summarize the performance of wide receivers in the NFL from 1999 - 2012 along with data on their post college combine scores at the various competitions. Armando’s post of Dr. Smith’s provocative findings was an indirect challenge to the Dolphin’s analytics team:

With such an approach, how did the Dolphins come to select wide receiver Jarvis Landry in the second round of the draft?

Sure, Landry was known as an extremely tough and sure-handed competitor at LSU, running excellent routes, with a willingness to take hits and fight for yardage. His big college reputation: he seldom drops passes. Moreover, Landry displayed excellent blocking skills similar to Anquan Boldin. ESPN’s Todd McShay, praised the Dolphin’s 2nd round pick and believes Landry could be one of the best draft values.

Jarvis Landry fights for the ball: (photo: Bill Feig: The Advocate)

But there are questions.

Landry is not an athletic super star.

In particular,  his 40 yard dash time in the Indianapolis combine was 4.77 seconds– one of the slowest. At 5 feet, 11 inches and 205 pounds, he is neither exceptionally tall nor heavy. Later, on his pro day Landry ran a 4.61 forty yard dash twice. Although better, that’s none too fast. Dr. Smith expressed questions about Landry’s speed in his analysis of his data and what that would mean for his potential in the NFL.

His evaluation found that while “slow receivers” like Landry sometimes did well in the SEC colleges, that potential did not often carry over to the NFL. Davone Bess had a similarly slow speed (4.64) and was lighter ( while being able to be productive in the NFL for several seasons). But...

"Landry could be the slowest second-round pick by as  much as 0.17 seconds,” Dr. Smith commented."Landry's 4.77 combine time is slower than any of the 284 receivers in the data set.”

Further, to Smith, that statistic does not bode well for Landry "According to my analysis Landry is unlikely to have success and drafting him in the second round is a reach."  You can read more of Dr. Smith’s logic here:

http://bit.ly/1k1646K

Salguero kindly made Dr. Smith’s Excel data file available, which I promptly downloaded and moved into STATA– a statistics package I frequently use in my work for the Department of Energy at the University of Central Florida.

While I was sure Dr. Smith would have looked at the data in detail, I wanted to do my own examination and see what I could find out.  I work with statistics very often in trying to ferret out useful information from messy data and I am familiar with many of the tools.  For such purposes, I often use step wise multiple regression coupled with Analysis of Covariance (ANCOVA) or other non-parametric procedures to sort out complicated and often, interacting relationships.

Was speed as important as Dr. Smith assumed it to be? 

And what would the full data on the 495 wide receivers in the NFL from 1999 - 2012 tells us about what performance measures at the combine might translate to success on the grid-iron?

I was surprised from what I learned and I think sports fans might be too...

Hint?  Examine the title of this column.

Until next time.

Wade's Entertaining but Unlikely Top 10 Mock Draft

This is my mock draft, I tried to make it different (and funny) but still (slightly) logical, please enjoy!

1. Houston Texans

Houston knows who their man is, they have said as much, but the pick could literally be ANYONE!

The Pick:  Johnny Manziel:

The Texans are one quarterback away from competing for the AFC South title right?  No obviously not, they have the first overall pick for a reason.  But despite this the Texans take a chance on an exciting player who will bring youth and energy to the franchise.  He will be their quarterback next year. (likely not)

 

2. Detroit Lions (from St. Louis Rams) (from Washington Redskins) 

TRADE TO THE DETROIT LIONS (They are serious about trading up!)

The St. Louis Rams receive:

Pick #10 (1st Round)

Pick #45 (2nd Round)

Pick #111 (4th Round)

Pick #133 (4th Round)

2nd Round Pick (2015 draft)

The Pick:  Sammy Watkins:

Despite the Lions showing interest in almost every single top prospect the only one that would be able to take this team to the next level is Sammy Watkins. Even if Watkins doesn't turn out as advertised, I am rather sure Calvin Johnson can make anybody look good. (This could actually happen)

3. Jacksonville Jaguars 

The Jaguars are shocked that all world athlete and potential super star Jadeveon Clowney is still on the board, the Jags take all of the time allowed as they are madly fielding trade calls from all around the league while simultaneously attempting make the worst possible choice as to continue the streak of mediocrity that they seem to be so keen on.  In the end, their is now way they can muck this one up.

The Pick:  Jadeveon Clowney

Not much to say about this pick, its a no-brainer even in a wonky mock draft such as this.  There is no way that even the Jags could mess this up.

4. Cleveland Browns 

The Browns front office has been a mess recently (and by that I mean since they rejoined the NFL), it might be better if Kevin Costner was running this organization.

The Pick:  Khalil Mack

Just one year removed from taking pass rushing specialist Barkevious Mingo (best name ever), the Browns once again add a talented pass rusher to an already stout defense in hope that he will take them to the next level.

5. Oakland Raiders 

The Oakland Raiders are the suprise team for 2014, you heard it here first.  The way they are approaching this off-season is GENIUS, but that is for another post. It is only suiting then that the Raiders botch the draft after a spectacular under the radar off-season.

The Pick:  Dri Archer

Mark Davis honors his father's memory in my universe by selecting the fastest player in the draft.  He will be a FANTASTIC Kick Returner and he is more durable then Darren McFadden.

 6. Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons are a good team, and good teams make good choices.  The Falcons are besides themselves that the Offensive Tackles are untouched and are commending themselves for not trading up.

The Pick:  Greg Robinson 

The Falcons in years past have been AWFUL in recent years when it comes to running the ball, the turbo athletic Robinson fixes that issue immediately.  While he is not yet a great pass protector his potential to be warrants the early selection.

7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 

While I wish could have the Bucs draft a quarterback, they have Josh McCown and none are worth taking so early in a draft like this.

The Pick:  Mike Evans

With Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson on the outside Ryan Leaf could have gone to the Hall of Fame.  The only team that might be able to stand in their way would be those highly paid Seahawks DB's.

8. Miami Dolphins (from Minnesota Vikings) 

TRADE TO THE MIAMI DOLPHINS (This is my world, I can do what I want)

The Minnesota Vikings Receive:

Pick #19

Pick #50

Pick #81

Pick #155

2rd Round Pick (2015 draft)

4th Round Pick (2015 draft)

The Pick:  Jake Matthews

The Dolphins are surprised by the fact that the most pro-ready Tackle is still on the board and they over slightly overpay for a plug-and-play elite level Tackle.

9. Buffalo Bills 

After the selection of E.J. Manuel last year the Bills need to add playmakers.  

The Pick:  Eric Ebron

Ebron the speedster reminds me of Vernon Davis and would give the Bills a big time playmaking Tight End that can exploit Miamis constantly poor LB's.

10. St. Louis Rams (from Detroit Lions) 

Following the trend that the NFC West has set with this pick the Rams continue to improve a stingy defense.

The Pick:  Anthony Barr

With Barr he not only brings great backside pursuit but also just continues to add to the relentless pass rush of the Rams front 7.

The Year of Dion Jordan?

Word has it that Dion Jordan is really making a big effort in recent weeks. Serious work ethic.

He wants to be much better in 2014.

While most of his teammates showed up for off-season conditioning last Monday at the Dolphins training facilities, Dion Jordan had already been there for weeks. His objective: to be a force to be reckoned with  when the season opens.

Jordan was acquired as the 3rd overall  pick last year in a shrewd maneuver in the first round. A pass rush specialist, he has a powerful body with a freakish geometry reminiescent of another Dolphins defense icon:  Jason Taylor.

Last year he was sidelined for much of the time with a surgetically repaired shoulder injury that limited opening play and he ended up playing only 339 snaps during the season. He had only two sacks and five quarterback hits in his 24 total tackles.  Week to week he was mentioned in 2013 as "not meeting expectations" with pundits questioning his selection by Miami that runs at 4-3 defense that seems less than optimal for using Jordan most effectively.

I recent weeks there have been rumors of the desire by other teams-- most notably the Philadelphia Eagles-- to acquire Jordan in a trade. That still could happen, as being reported around the league:

http://bit.ly/1leMfZg

Still, I think new manager Dennis Hickey knows something about the young stallion he has in Miami's stable.

“He’s a very talented player and this is a big offseason for him,” Hickey said. “Last year with his shoulder he didn’t have an opportunity to have a full offseason. That’s so important. Developing and getting your body — not just the physical reps but the mental reps — getting in the weight room and all those things is such an important part to get these guys ready to make that jump. We’re excited about Dion going forward and having a great offseason and looking for big things from him.”

But will he choose to use him to aggravate Tom Brady, or to buy extra picks this year?

From Jordan's performance at Oregon know that  is talented, but I sense something more. A powerful work ethic in life may be the deciding factor in just about every contest where raw talent is about equal.

Desire to excel is the desire.

I believe 2014 could be the year that Dion Jordan shows the world what he means in the game of football.

Read more here: http://miamiherald.typepad.com/dolphins_in_depth/2014/04/jordan-beat-teammates-to-offseason-conditioning-by-two-weeks.html#storylink=cpy